Syria Revisited

One year ago I made a post about the Syrian Civil War, comparing it to other civil wars in the region over the past several decades. The war hasn’t come to an end, and now the U.S.  is heavily considering intervening. If anything, the war has become an enormous global talking point within the last few weeks and months. Because of that, I decided that it was time to take a look back at the Civil War. How do my previous predictions look? And perhaps more importantly, what would be the result of U.S. intervention in Syria?

Let’s start with the easy question: Who is going to win? Last year, I said the rebels. Seems legit. The rebels have more to fight for and if the U.S. were to intervene on their behalf, things will really be looking up. (For both sides, really, if bombs start getting dropped).

Something like this, with more panicking

I also suggested that about 200,000 people would be killed by the time the war was all over. When I wrote the original post, only about 30,000 people had perished in a little less than a year and a half of fighting. Within half a year, that number jumped to 100,000.

The worst part about this number is that about half of the deaths are from civilians, potentially more. This wasn’t something that we saw back during the American Civil War or the American Revolutionary War- most of those deaths were restricted to the battlefields. But with most recent civil wars, the number of innocent bystanders that die typically surpasses the number of actual combatants.

Finally, let’s look at the length we can expect the war to last. I projected the war to last maybe eight years, so five or six more. Originally, I had thought this number seemed a little bit high, because we had just seen the Libyan Civil War ended and everyone was feeling pretty good about themselves for solving that problem so quickly and efficiently (right?). Now, I’m a little bit more confident. I’m not happy about it, but look at what happened in Egypt. We thought that Egypt was going to be able to look after itself and function normally after its part in the Arab Spring. Then July happened. The fact is, those of us in the developed world often take stability for granted. Even if the fighting technically stops within the next few months, regardless of U.S. intervention, it’s still going to be a long road to stability in Syria, and to be honest, I wouldn’t put my chips on them not sliding back into a state of warfare. (That was… a lot of negatives.)

So at this point, I’m comfortable saying that the Syrian rebels will eventually win the war, and it’s going to take about five or six more years before it is run to its completion. Clearly, unfortunately, I underestimated what the death toll would look like. To note, though: I did suggest that about 2.71% of a country’s population would typically lose their lives in the event of a civil war in that region. For Syria, that amounts to just under 600,000 people- an estimate that seems much more plausible now than last year.

But now let’s talk about U.S. intervention in Syria. Typically, I prefer to stay away from controversial topics, but since I’ve been involved in Syria since day 1 –er- 500 something, and since it doesn’t really seem to be all that controversial, why not?

You already have your own opinion of whether or not the U.S. should intervene in Syria, unless you’re one of those carefree 8%. So I’m not even going to bother worrying about whether we should or not intervene. I’m simply going to look at the results of what would happen if we did intervene.

When the U.S. gets attacked or involved in wars in which it has a serious investment in the outcome (Revolutionary, 1812, Civil, Mexican, Native American, Spanish, WWI&II), generally, we do pretty well. When we get involved in wars where- and I’m choosing my words carefully- there is less directly at stake for the American people… then our track record begins to waver. Slightly.

There is no real trend for U.S. intervention in domestic disputes of other countries concerning whether we have a positive or negative effect. Certainly, people remember Vietnam and Korea as two interventions which may not have gone as planned. Massive casualties mounted and the end results weren’t exactly what we wanted. But it’s important to remember that there was intervention on both sides of those wars from countries nearly as powerful as the U.S., such as China. That would likely not be the case in Syria.

Perhaps it would be better to consider some of the smaller, forgotten civil wars in which the U.S. has been involved. In some cases, like the Dominican Republic in the 1960s, or Lebanon in 1958, the U.S. was involved right from the beginning, and the wars only lasted a couple months. Victories were decisive with minimal losses. When the U.S. isn’t involved from the beginning, there are checkered results. In Laos, a civil war lasted for 22 years, 11 of which occurred despite U.S. intervention. However, a relatively “low” amount of casualties were experienced for a war of that length- if you can consider 20-70 thousand “low.” Yet when the U.S. intervened in Cambodia, the bombings may have delayed the inevitable conclusion of the war there by up to five years. A quarter million people died in that eight-year dispute.

Clearly, each scenario is different. The U.S. wants to get involved for different reasons; different sides have different advantages or disadvantages, et cetera. The best precedent we have for a situation like this is the one that occurred in Libya in 2011. The U.S. and NATO intervened on the rebels’ behalf and six months later, the war was over. It was a relatively short one, too.

I think that’s the best scenario that the U.S. can hope for if it gets involved with Syria- a quick ending to the war. But other factors suggest this won’t be quite as “easy.” The government is much more stubborn- the alleged use of chemical weapons certainly gives you some idea- and the war is already a full-blown war. Historically, the U.S. hasn’t done quite as well when it has gotten involved in wars this late- look at Cambodia, Laos, and Somalia- where the UN & U.S. tried to get involved 20 years ago. That war is still ongoing. (They pulled out three years later, in 1995).

The civilian casualties must also be taken into account. If the U.S. does indeed intervene by bombing key al-Assad strongholds (with missiles that don’t exactly have pinpoint accuracy), there will be a substantial amount of civilian deaths. Those deaths have become a necessity for civil wars in recent years, unfortunately. But I think everyone can agree that the U.S. should take the steps to minimize those casualties as much as they can. The worst case scenario for U.S. intervention? It’s Cambodia all over again; the bombings delay the end of the war substantially, causing a significant civilian death toll on the side.

As the war develops in the coming months- especially if the U.S. intervenes- remember those predictions at the beginning of this post. 8 years. 600,000 deaths. And the rebels are victorious. You can judge any foreign involvement as positive or negative based on how the final numbers actually end up. Let us fervently hope that those first two numbers are substantially lower.

And on that note, here’s a picture of a cat:

Should We Be Worried About North Korea and Do We Need a Death Star?

North Korea has been in the news lately for conducting more nuclear tests. This made me wonder- how many nuclear weapons are there currently in the world? Who do they belong to? How much are we spending on them? Should we be worried about North Korea? And, strangely- do we need a Death Star? I attempt to shed some light on these questions in my latest infographic:

How Long Will The Syrian Civil War Last?

I didn’t expect the bombing of U.S. embassies in North Africa and the Middle East when I began to research this post, but the current state of affairs in that region- unfortunately- fits very well this topic.

It’s been nearly two years now since the start of the Arab Spring. Since then, we’ve seen many changes in North Africa and the Middle East. As the protests grew, they captured international attention. First, Tunisia’s government toppled. Sparked by their success, perhaps, other protests broke out across the region. Egyptians overthrew their own government less than a month later, and then Yemen followed shortly afterwards. In Libya, a civil war broke out, and the rebel forces were successful by the end of August. Many countries have had governmental changes; many others are still seeing ongoing protests.

The bombing in Libya, and subsequent anti-U.S. attacks and protests, prove that the Middle East and North Africa aren’t as stable as we’d hoped they’d be. We should have expected this, though. After facing civil wars and major governmental changes, it would be surprising if a country wasn’t in turmoil. And turmoil is exactly what we have. It’s sadly commonplace for a country to fall back into a state of civil war and disorganization directly following a revolution.

How long will it take for things to stabilize in the region? That’s tough to answer. It’s not like a civil war, which can end overnight. We won’t wake up one morning to find that everything’s better. It will be a long, slow process that will likely take years to finish.

Let’s turn our attention towards the bloodiest state right now, the one still in the midst of a gruesome civil war: Syria. This war has been ongoing for far longer than any of the other armed conflicts associated with the Arab Spring, and shows no signs of stopping. How long will it be until the war ends, and how will it end? That’s the question we attempt to answer today.

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I compiled data on 45 different civil wars besides the Syrian war. 43 took place since 1930 (20 since the year 2000- in green), and the other two were the United States Civil and Revolutionary War, which will be used only as standards for comparison. 9 wars took place in the Middle East (in tan on the data table), 22 in Africa (yellow), and the rest took place elsewhere in the world, mainly East Asia and Central and South America. 37 lasted longer than a year (in blue). 

I found data for each war on the death toll, the total population of the country (at the midpoint of the war), the percentage of the population killed, and whether or not the group that was rebelling was successful.

Below is a scatter plot of the death toll of each war vs. when it started. Ongoing (most at low-level) wars are in red in each scatter plot:

There’s no correlation between when a war began and its total death toll. This means that we haven’t been killing more people with new, advanced weaponry, but it also means the number of people dying in these wars is going down.

Additionally, one of the more disturbing trends we’ve seen recently regards the number of civilians killed in times of war. It’s very difficult to find statistics on this matter, especially since most civil wars take place in under-developed countries. However, in many civil wars, a vast majority of the people killed aren’t the soldiers and combatants on either side- they’re innocent civilians, killed by bombs or other atrocities. From the limited data I found on this, I’d estimate maybe 90% of people killed in the average civil war for the past thirty or so years were civilians.

The next chart is a plot of the percentage of the population killed vs. the starting year of the war:

 

Again, there’s no correlation between the two.

Finally, here’s a chart of the results of each civil war. Five are ongoing (four at a low-level), and two are listed as “N/A” because those wars were a result of a power struggle shortly after a revolution:

Most rebels are actually very successful in civil wars. About 1/3 of the civil wars I looked at ended with rebel victories. Another 13 ended in tentative peace agreements, which usually grants some demands of the rebels. Only seven of the 43 wars I analyzed ended with rebel defeats.

Why is this? Simple: The rebels are fighting for much more than the incumbent government. They want change, and will go to greater lengths to get that change. We can see a smaller version of this right here in America with- believe it or not- online and telephone surveys. The results of those polls are often skewed towards change because the people that want change are feel strongest about the issue are more likely to respond to the survey.

All things considered, the average death toll for the civil wars I examined was 266,940, and the average percentage of the population killed was 2.37%. 

In the Middle East alone, the percentage of population killed was very similar: 2.38%.  Taking into account African countries yields a higher percentage: 2.71%. For Syria, this percentage means 535,000-610,000 people would die in the fighting- twenty times the current amount. The 267,000 figure is much more plausible.

The length of the conflict is difficult to predict. The average length from the data was 9.79 years; not counting ongoing conflicts, it was 7.74 years. The figure for the Middle East alone was 7.87 years.  The first number actually makes sense; at the current rate, the death toll would reach 267,000 in a little under nine years.

Let’s compare this to the U.S. Civil and Revolutionary Wars. The Civil War lasted just over four years, yet took the lives of 625,000 people, the vast majority of them soldiers. The Revolutionary War, on the other hand, lasted over eight years- yet only 50,000 Americans were killed, with about 35,000 Europeans. Warfare has certainly changed over the years- and not necessarily for the better. The change from conventional battlegrounds has led to the deaths of many innocent people.

Now, to conclude. Based on the data, I expect the civil war in Syria will last about six or seven more years, and will cause the death of a little over 200,000 more people- most of them civilians. I sincerely hope that this prediction is wrong and the war ends quickly- but that’s not what the statistics suggest will happen. History does say, however, that the Syrian rebels stand a good chance of winning.

My data can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnZrkjWWJajQdEt1LWlrWFFxaVZ5c2hFbUdHb2dpdEE