Trending Topics: The iPhone, Revisited: Expectations for the 5S and 5C, and why it’s bad news for… Mozilla?

The iPhone 5S - Apple

The big story of the day, at least in the tech world, was Apple’s grand unveiling of its new iPhone products, the iPhone 5S, and the iPhone 5C. Of course, whenever Apple announces anything, it’s the big story of the day. But today’s announcement was a little different. For the first time, Apple revealed not one but two new iPhones at the same time. The 5S can be viewed as the natural successor to the previous iPhone 5, and the iPhone 5C, while also a successor, is advertised as a cheaper alternative. We’ll get into what the 5C will mean for Apple and the rest of the smartphone industry later on, but first I’d like to revisit the post I wrote about a year ago on the iPhone 5.

At the time, that iteration had just been released, and I was working off the opening weekend sales figures and all the Apple financial summaries since the first iPhone. A total of 5 million units sold for $1.5 billion on opening weekend, creating optimism surrounding the product. I predicted that Apple’s revenues from iPhone products could hit $100 billion for the next fiscal year. That’s still possible, if the new phones have a huge showing, but not likely. Apple will end up with a little over $90 billion in revenue from iPhones over FY2013. That’s not bad at all. And some of the comparisons you can make to the early iPhones are mind-boggling. Apple made more off of the first quarter after the iPhone 5 release than it did for the first 3½ years that it produced iPhones. Statistics suggest the iPhone 5 has accounted for nearly 1/3 of all iPhone sales ever- and it’s been around less than a year.

That is some really good news for the 5S and 5C. Their sales figures are likely to shine, even though they will both takes sales away from each other. Overall, we should see a moderately larger bump in combined sales for iPhones. The theory Apple’s going for: Most existing customers will upgrade to the 5S (while a few will opt for the cheaper 5C), and the less expensive 5C will attract new users, expanding an already-large base of customers. The total number of customers will increase , as will their profits.

Here’s where things might go wrong, and where you should be skeptical. Apple is maintaining the same price ladder as before, so the 5C isn’t quite as cheap as Apple is trying to make it seem:

*Starting at; with contract

The 5C is still a better deal than the 4S was at this time last year, since it’s a step ahead of the previous generation, rather than a step behind. But it may not attract many new customers, since the prices are the exact same. The only possible way the price would be a substantial reduction would be if the contracts were substantially reduced in price, and unfortunately, that’s not going to happen.

Even so, the 5C (and 5S) have some pretty strong selling points. More colors options will attract the aesthetic enthusiasts. The cameras are exciting- photos are taken at 10 frames per second, allowing for rather smooth GIF creations (and proving just how much GIFs have saturated our lives). The video recording options- 30 fps normal rate and a 120 fps slow-motion capture (which you can seamlessly switch between) is making me salivate ever so slightly. And it’s fast. Really fast. If Apple can convince the public that the 5C really is cheaper- they’re doing a great job so far; literally every headline mentioning the 5C contains the word “cheaper”- then they will be coasting through a year with $100 billion in revenue, easily. Expect the opening weekend sales figures from 5S and 5C combined to outperform the 5’s opening numbers (5 million units, $1.5 billion revenue) and the first quarter iPhone numbers for FY2014 should set a new record. Remember, the first full quarter which featured the iPhone 5 broke the previous sales record by over $5 billion.

The iPhone 5C - Apple

One of the reasons Apple has cited for the release of the iPhone 5C is an inexpensive alternative to other smartphones in developing countries with emerging markets. It’s a smart business strategy for Apple, but it might not sit well with a lesser-known company which has had a similar plan in the works for over a year.

Mozilla- the not-for-profit that brought you Firefox and Thunderbird- had plans to bring smartphones with its new Firefox OS to the same type of countries: those with emerging markets. Mozilla has already been rolling out its phones for the last few months, and they will almost certainly remain a cheaper option to the iPhone 5C in those developing markets. But that doesn’t mean the revelation of the 5C won’t throw a wrench in Mozilla’s plans. If Mozilla wants to make an impact on developing nations in the same way that Apple has made a mark on the United States, it may have to reevaluate their strategy. Apple has nearly all the name recognition, and if the price is low enough, that may be all that Apple needs to KO the upstart Firefox OS. It will be interesting to see what the fox has to say in the coming weeks.

As a parting gift, here’s an updated version of the revenue graphs from last year. From what I’ve seen, there aren’t any major changes to the physical aspect of the new iPhones, so I won’t rehash those charts. Pardon the formatting.