I didn’t expect the bombing of U.S. embassies in North
Africa and the Middle East when I began to research this post, but the current
state of affairs in that region- unfortunately- fits very well this topic.
It’s been nearly two years now since the start of the Arab
Spring. Since then, we’ve seen many changes in North Africa and the Middle
East. As the protests grew, they captured international attention. First,
Tunisia’s government toppled. Sparked by their success, perhaps, other protests
broke out across the region. Egyptians overthrew their own government less than
a month later, and then Yemen followed shortly afterwards. In Libya, a civil
war broke out, and the rebel forces were successful by the end of August. Many
countries have had governmental changes; many others are still seeing ongoing
protests.
The bombing in Libya, and subsequent anti-U.S. attacks and
protests, prove that the Middle East and North Africa aren’t as stable as we’d
hoped they’d be. We should have expected this, though. After facing civil wars
and major governmental changes, it would be surprising if a country wasn’t in turmoil. And turmoil is
exactly what we have. It’s sadly commonplace for a country to fall back into a
state of civil war and disorganization directly following a revolution.
How long will it take for things to stabilize in the region?
That’s tough to answer. It’s not like a civil war, which can end overnight. We
won’t wake up one morning to find that everything’s better. It will be a long,
slow process that will likely take years to finish.
Let’s turn our attention towards the bloodiest state right
now, the one still in the midst of a gruesome civil war: Syria. This war has
been ongoing for far longer than any of the other armed conflicts associated
with the Arab Spring, and shows no signs of stopping. How long will it be until
the war ends, and how will it end? That’s the question we attempt to answer
today.
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I compiled data on 45 different civil wars besides the
Syrian war. 43 took place since 1930 (20 since the year 2000- in green), and
the other two were the United States Civil and Revolutionary War, which will be
used only as standards for comparison. 9 wars took place in the Middle East (in
tan on the data table), 22 in Africa (yellow), and the rest took place
elsewhere in the world, mainly East Asia and Central and South America. 37
lasted longer than a year (in blue).
I found data for each war on the death toll, the total
population of the country (at the midpoint of the war), the percentage of the
population killed, and whether or not the group that was rebelling was
successful.
Below is a scatter plot of the death toll of each war vs.
when it started. Ongoing (most at low-level) wars are in red in each scatter
plot:
There’s no correlation between when a war began and its
total death toll. This means that we haven’t been killing more people with new,
advanced weaponry, but it also means the number of people dying in these wars
is going down.
Additionally, one of the more disturbing trends we’ve seen
recently regards the number of civilians killed in times of war. It’s very
difficult to find statistics on this matter, especially since most civil wars
take place in under-developed countries. However, in many civil wars, a vast
majority of the people killed aren’t the soldiers and combatants on either
side- they’re innocent civilians, killed by bombs or other atrocities. From the
limited data I found on this, I’d estimate maybe 90% of people killed in the
average civil war for the past thirty or so years were civilians.
The next chart is a plot of the percentage of the population
killed vs. the starting year of the war:
Again, there’s no correlation between the two.
Finally, here’s a chart of the results of each civil war.
Five are ongoing (four at a low-level), and two are listed as “N/A” because
those wars were a result of a power struggle shortly after a revolution:
Most rebels are actually very successful in civil wars.
About 1/3 of the civil wars I looked at ended with rebel victories. Another 13
ended in tentative peace agreements, which usually grants some demands of the
rebels. Only seven of the 43 wars I analyzed ended with rebel defeats.
Why is this? Simple: The rebels are fighting for much more
than the incumbent government. They want change, and will go to greater lengths
to get that change. We can see a smaller version of this right here in America
with- believe it or not- online and telephone surveys. The results of those
polls are often skewed towards change because the people that want change are
feel strongest about the issue are more likely to respond to the survey.
All things considered, the average death toll for the civil
wars I examined was 266,940, and the average percentage of the population
killed was 2.37%.
In the Middle East alone, the percentage of population
killed was very similar: 2.38%. Taking
into account African countries yields a higher percentage: 2.71%. For Syria,
this percentage means 535,000-610,000 people would die in the fighting- twenty
times the current amount. The 267,000 figure is much more plausible.
The length of the conflict is difficult to predict. The
average length from the data was 9.79 years; not counting ongoing conflicts, it
was 7.74 years. The figure for the Middle East alone was 7.87 years. The first number actually makes sense; at the
current rate, the death toll would reach 267,000 in a little under nine years.
Let’s compare this to the U.S. Civil and Revolutionary Wars.
The Civil War lasted just over four years, yet took the lives of 625,000
people, the vast majority of them soldiers.
The Revolutionary War, on the other hand, lasted over eight years- yet only
50,000 Americans were killed, with about 35,000 Europeans. Warfare has
certainly changed over the years- and not necessarily for the better. The
change from conventional battlegrounds has led to the deaths of many innocent
people.
Now, to conclude. Based on the data, I expect the civil war
in Syria will last about six or seven more years, and will cause the death of a
little over 200,000 more people- most of them civilians. I sincerely hope that
this prediction is wrong and the war ends quickly- but that’s not what the
statistics suggest will happen. History does say, however, that the Syrian
rebels stand a good chance of winning.
My data can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnZrkjWWJajQdEt1LWlrWFFxaVZ5c2hFbUdHb2dpdEE
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